Research & Evidence

Three independent sources converge on the same pattern my data shows: a substantial post-COVID decline, reading lagging math, and widening gaps.

Source 1 — Peer-reviewed journal article

Kuhfeld, M., Soland, J., & Lewis, K. (2022). Test score patterns across three COVID-19-impacted school years. Educational Researcher, 51(7), 500–506. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X221109178

Using NWEA MAP scores from 5.4 million U.S. students (a different test from NAEP), the authors found math fell 0.20–0.27 standard deviations and reading 0.09–0.18 standard deviations from fall 2019 to fall 2021, and that achievement gaps by race/ethnicity and poverty widened. This supports my finding — the decline and widening gaps appear in an independent dataset, so they are not an artifact of NAEP.

Source 2 — Government report

National Center for Education Statistics (2025). The Nation's Report Card: 2024 NAEP mathematics and reading results (grades 4 and 8). https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/

The official report confirms the numbers I pulled: national reading fell 5 points from 2019 and continued falling 2 more points from 2022 to 2024, while grade 4 math fell 3 and grade 8 math 8 points from 2019. This confirms my data, though it is the same underlying source, so it is confirmation rather than independent triangulation.

Source 3 — Research-organization report

Kane, T. J., & Reardon, S. F., et al. (2025). Education Recovery Scorecard. Center for Education Policy Research (Harvard) and Educational Opportunity Project (Stanford). https://educationrecoveryscorecard.org/

Using state test results for roughly 35 million students, the Scorecard found the average student remained nearly half a grade level behind 2019 levels in 2024, with the highest-income districts nearly four times as likely to recover as the poorest. It also stresses that the decline began around 2013, before the pandemic. This supports my finding and slightly complicates it — it confirms the decline and widening gaps, while emphasizing that part of the slide predates COVID, which matches my own pre-COVID reading trend.

Triangulation

• Where the sources align: all three agree on a substantial post-COVID decline, reading lagging math, and widening gaps.
• Where they differ or raise questions: the Recovery Scorecard (and my pre-COVID trend) stress that the decline began before the pandemic — raising the question of how much is pandemic-driven versus a longer-term trend.
• What this means: the finding is robust across three independent measures, but it should be interpreted as a multi-year decline that the pandemic accelerated, not a pandemic-only event.